No matter how good a resume is or isn’t, streaks of wins or losses in the final month of the regular season can heavily influence where a team lands in the bracket, and it could be the determining factor of success in March.
Prime examples include St. John’s and Oregon. The Red Storm, only with three Quad 1 victories, are leading the Big East and their tournament stock is rising. Then there’s the Ducks, who have seven Quad 1 victories but are tumbling toward the bubble despite their resume. In summary, maintaining success in the second half of the season is just as important as stacking up quality wins to start the campaign.
There’s only four more weeks of the regular season for the majority of the country before fate is left in conference tournaments. As teams attempt to boost their draw in the NCAA Tournament, here are the times on the rise in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology, and which teams are stumbling down the seed line.
Rising
St. John’s
Current projected seed: No. 3 (Midwest)
The Big East is literally running through Madison Square Garden with St. John’s beating the conference contenders in back-to-back weeks. After defending home court against Marquette and going into Gampel Pavilion and taking down the defending champions, the Red Storm sit on top of the Big East with a greater chance to play in the tournament without ever leaving the East Coast.
Arizona
Current projected seed: No. 3 (West)
The Wildcats avenged their only Big 12 defeat by outlasting Texas Tech at home to extend the win streak to six. Arizona is 7-2 in its last nine Quad 1 opportunities and is ranked No. 7 in the NET. While they remain a No. 3 seed in the projected bracket, Arizona is now in the West, giving them a geographical boost. A loss to a suddenly hot Kansas State team wasn’t ideal, but Arizona has a big matchup against Houston on deck.
Clemson
Current projected seed: No. 7 (Midwest)
Being the second best team in the ACC doesn’t mean as much as it used to, but Clemson capitalized on a much-needed resume booster to get into the top half of the bracket. After dropping a confusing loss to Georgia Tech, the Tigers rebounded to beat Duke and then pummeled North Carolina. Now a projected seventh seed, Clemson is closer to the same spot it last year’s Elite Eight team was in.
Nebraska
Current projected seed: No. 10 (East)
Nebraska looked dead in the water when it lost six in a row, but the Cornhuskers have rebounded quickly with a four wins in a row that include quality defeats of Illinois, Oregon and Ohio State. Now Fred Hoiberg’s team is looking more secure of landing back-to-back tournament appearances for the first time in two decades, and a chance to capture that elusive first tournament win.
Virginia Commonwealth
Current projected seed: No. 11 seed (First Four)
Can VCU get in the tournament without an Atlantic 10 conference tournament title? So far, the answer is yes, with the Rams winners of three in a row and just one game behind leader George Mason. While the NET ranking of 36 is good, VCU doesn’t have a Quad 1 win and no opportunities left, leaving little room for error for a team with a Quad 4 loss.
Falling
Kansas
Current projected seed: No. 5 (Midwest)
It’s almost deja vu for Bill Self with another slump late in the season resulting in Kansas falling way down the seed line. In the past two weeks, the Jayhawks have had multiple bad results, including a loss to Baylor and an embarrassing effort against in-state rival Kansas State. The schedule is going to get softer for the next few weeks, a perfect time for Kansas to turn things around.
Connecticut
Current projected seed: No. 8 (Midwest)
There the same amount of fear when facing Connecticut, which split its last six games before Tuesday’s defeat of Creighton. A lot more has to go wrong for the Huskies to be in real danger of missing the tournament, but they’ve become such an enigma, it’s tough to tell what team will show up each night. It may result in the defending champions not getting to the second weekend of the tournament.
Oregon
Current projected seed: No. 9 (West)
How the mighty Ducks have fallen. Oregon has gone from a projected No. 3 seed to a team in danger of becoming a double-digit seeded team thanks to a five game losing skid. Before the Ducks can worry about making the tournament, it has to make sure it stays as one of the 15 teams to qualify for the Big Ten tournament − they are just one game ahead of the danger line.
Vanderbilt
Current projected seed: No. 9 (East)
After picking up some impressive wins to start conference play, the toughness of the SEC may finally be getting to Vanderbilt; the Commodores have lost three of its last four. The road won’t get an easier with five consecutive ranked opponents coming after Tuesday’s loss to Auburn. It’s truly sink or swim now for Vanderbilt.
Brigham Young
Current projected seed: First four out.
Brigham Young was trending toward a tournament spot when it won four consecutive games, but another losing skid put the Cougars on the outside of the projected field. With a NET ranking of 41 and a Quad 1 and 2 record of 6-8, BYU can ill afford to lose anymore and continue to let opponents shoot well against it. Beating West Virginia on Tuesday was a good start in getting back into consideration.