LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The consensus around this year’s Kentucky Derby formed quickly on April 5 when Journalism ran down Baeza in the stretch of the Santa Anita Derby.
The race not only confirmed that Journalism was the best 3-year old in California, but the way he won it — with jockey Umberto Rispoli getting impeded on the rail, forcing him to drop back before swinging outside on the second turn — was impressive enough to make him the clear-cut favorite heading to Churchill Downs.
“Journalism, in my opinion, got in as much trouble in the Santa Anita Derby as he’s liable to get in in the Kentucky Derby,” Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey said this week, making the case for why Journalism’s come-from-behind running style isn’t going to hamper him in the Derby’s 19-horse field.
But the Derby, as always, is a one-off event where the circumstances that develop during the race are impossible to predict and often lend themselves to a surprising outcome. After a string of favorites dominated in the 2010s, the last three Derby winners have paid $163.60 (Rich Strike), $32.42 (Mage) and $39.22 (Mystik Dan) for a $2 ticket.
And while Journalism has done little wrong thus far in his career, the fact that his three big stakes wins in California came against five-horse fields combined with Rispoli’s inexperience (he’s only ridden in the Derby twice before) opens up just enough room to take a stand against him as a betting proposition.
Which is exactly what we’re going to do.
Given that this Derby does not look on paper like it will produce exceptionally fast early fractions — Rodriguez, one of the few true speed horses, was scratched Thursday — my ideal contender is going to find a comfortable spot in seventh or eight place down the back stretch, steer clear of trouble, hit the accelerator at the 3/8 pole and then open up enough daylight that the late runners like Journalism will have too much work to do coming home.
And that horse, based on what we’ve seen from his races in Japan, is Luxor Cafe.
The son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, will attempt to do something Saturday that has never happened in Derby history: Ship in from Asia and win America’s most important horse race.
It’s a tall task, but not an impossible one. Last year, Forever Young showed the world that the quality of Japanese racing has improved to the point that its top 3-year olds can compete anywhere. If not for a series of bumps in the stretch while running alongside Sierra Leone, Forever Young may well have taken the roses instead of Mystik Dan, who won a three-way photo finish.
Whether Luxor Cafe belongs in the same class as Forever Young is an unknown, as is the quality of competition he faced back in Japan. How he’ll handle the elements and whether the long trip took anything out of him are additional factors that make it hard to go in with tremendous confidence.
But what’s clear from watching his prep races is that Luxor Cafe is a major talent who not only possess a tactical running style that typically suits the Derby, he can deploy an immediate response when internationally renowned jockey Joao Moreira signals that it’s time to go. If Luxor Cafe’s turn of foot is as devastating as it looked in Japan, he’ll be flying past horses heading toward the top of the stretch.
Is he good enough to actually win? We’ll see. But in a year where you can poke holes in all of the favorites, a horse as gifted as Luxor Cafe at around 15-1 on the morning line is an enticing proposition around which to build a $100 bettering strategy.
Beyond Luxor Cafe and Journalism, there are a handful of other horses who should have a good chance to win or at least run well.
Sovereignty, trained by Bill Mott, is an impressive-looking athlete who owns a five-length win over the Churchill racetrack last October but needs to improve off the Florida Derby when he ran a clear second without much of an excuse.
Sandman, the winner of the Arkansas Derby, will be running his best late but will need the race to set up perfectly in order to win. American Promise, from the D. Wayne Lukas barn, is an impressive physical specimen much like his sire Justify but hadn’t really accomplished much on the track before winning the Virginia Derby. A few others like Burnam Square, Chunk of Gold and Baeza will have a good chance to hit the board, giving us a chance to build some exotic bets.
But given the short odds on Journalism and even Sovereignty and the lack of anyone else who truly stands out in this field, the success or failure of the $100 bankroll this year will rest largely on whether Luxor Cafe can make history. If he can, it could be a very profitable evening:
$30 to win on Luxor Cafe
$8 exacta box Luxor Cafe/Sovereignty ($16 total bet)
$2 trifecta box Luxor Cafe/Sovereignty/Journalism ($12 total bet)
$1 trifecta Luxor Cafe over Sovereignty/Journalism/American Promise/Sandman/Chunk of Gold/Burnam Square/Baeza over Sovereignty/Journalism/American Promise/Sandman/Chunk of Gold/Burnam Square/Baeza ($42 total bet)
As always, enjoy Derby Day and only wager what you can afford to lose. Good luck!
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