A weekend full of impressive victories and unforgiving losses has again altered the bubble of the NCAA men’s tournament heading into the final week of the regular season.
There are some teams that have resided in the bubble for weeks like North Carolina and Arkansas, but team’s have continuously been moving in or out the projected field, creating a frenzy that feels like it can dramatically change at any moment. For instance, the last four teams in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology weren’t in the field just one week prior. So a good week − especially the last regularly scheduled one − is something every bubble contender will be seeking.
Nearly every team on the bubble has one regular season game left before they go off to their conference tournaments and try to make a run. While winning the automatic bid would do wonders, it’s far from likely happening, so a nice finish is needed to cap off the regular season.
Arkansas
Record: 18-12 (7-10). NET Ranking: 39. Quad 1 record: 5-9. Projected seed: No. 11.
Quality wins: vs. Michigan (neutral), at Kentucky, vs. Missouri.
Bad losses: at LSU, at South Carolina.
Things were going well in Fayetteville until the Razorbacks put up a dreadful performance against South Carolina, the worst team in the SEC. The loss to the Gamecocks was mitigated by an important Quad 1 win Tuesday at Vanderbilt. To remove doubt, it’s important for Arkansas to defeat Mississippi State at home Saturday as it will be a double-digit seed in the conference tournament.
Georgia
Record: 19-11 (7-10). NET Ranking: 32. Quad 1 record: 4-10. Projected seed: No. 11.
Quality wins: vs. St. John’s (neutral), vs. Kentucky, vs. Florida.
Bad losses: None
The Bulldogs are not only revived, but rolling ever since the upset of Florida last week. Georgia has won three in a row with two of them were Quad 1 victories. Georgia took care of business against South Carolina on Tuesday and although the regular-season finale against Vanderbilt isn’t a Quad 1 chance, it’ll be a Quad 2 contest against team that’s playing really good basketball down the stretch. A win would make Georgia 5-0 in Quad 2 games.
Boise State
Record: 22-8 (14-5). NET Ranking: 45. Quad 1 record: 3-5. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).
Quality wins: vs. Clemson, vs. St. Mary’s (neutral), vs. Utah State.
Bad losses: vs. Boston College (neutral), vs. Washington State.
Four Mountain West teams are in the bracket with surging Boise State finally joining the party. They weren’t Quad 1 wins, but beating conference leaders New Mexico and Utah State were wins that won’t go unnoticed. Now with five consecutive wins, the Broncos are in great position to have a good showing in the conference tournament, which will be needed to bolster their NCAA case.
Ohio State
Record: 17-13 (9-10). NET Ranking: 36. Quad 1 record: 6-10. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).
Quality wins: vs. Kentucky (neutral), at Purdue, vs. Maryland.
Bad losses: vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Northwestern.
Thirteen losses isn’t something that looks like a tournament team, but a high NET rankings is really helping Ohio State stay in the picture. A three-game losing streak pushed the Buckeyes down in the bubble, but it recovered with a road victory against Southern California and won the Tuesday bubble matchup against Nebraska in double overtime. Now another massive game awaits at Indiana on Saturday.
Xavier
Record: 19-10 (11-7). NET Ranking: 49. Quad 1 record: 1-9. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).
Quality wins: at Marquette, vs. Connecticut.
Bad losses: at TCU, at Georgetown.
The Musketeers made the most of its opportunity with a dominant second half propelling them to a win over Creighton, and they were rewarded with a projected spot in the First Four. Xavier doesn’t have a difficult end of the regular season − at Butler and hosting Providence − so it will need to push its win streak to seven games entering the Big East tournament.
Indiana
Record: 18-12 (9-10). NET Ranking: 54. Quad 1 record: 4-12. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).
Quality wins: at Michigan State, vs. Purdue.
Bad losses: at Iowa, at Northwestern.
So what if Mike Woodson isn’t coming back next season? The Hoosiers are playing like a tournament team with recent defeat of Michigan State and Purdue. The impressive play has vaulted Indiana from out of the picture to First Four position. The Hoosiers could’ve used the win at Oregon to avoid its 12th Quad 1 loss, but Saturday is another big night with fellow bubble team Ohio State visiting in a game that could change the picture.
Nebraska
Record: 17-13 (7-12). NET Ranking: 57. Quad 1 record: 5-10. Projected seed: First four out.
Quality wins: at Creighton, vs. UCLA, vs. Illinois.
Bad losses: vs. Rutgers, vs. Southern California, vs. Minnesota.
The sky is falling in Lincoln with a four-game losing streak that has taken Nebraska completely out of the field. The last three defeats – to Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio State – were by a combined seven points, with Tuesday’s loss to the Buckeyes in double overtime particularly painful. The Cornhuskers needs to beat Iowa on Saturday to stay in consideration.
Oklahoma
Record: 17-12 (4-12). NET Ranking: 50. Quad 1 record: 4-10. Projected seed: First four out.
Quality wins: vs. Arizona (neutral), vs. Michigan (neutral), vs. Louisville (neutral), vs. Mississippi State.
Bad losses: vs. LSU.
A narrow loss to Mississippi ended up being a big strike against Oklahoma, once again outside of the projected field. With seven losses in their last eight games, the Sooners need a perfect end of the regular season to make a strong push back in the bracket. Oklahoma has a 5-10 Quad 1 record, but the record could be tremendously improved with opportunities this week against Missouri and at rival Texas.
Texas
Record: 17-13 (6-11). NET Ranking: 41. Quad 1 record: 5-9. Projected seed: First four out.
Quality wins: vs. Missouri, vs. Kentucky, at Mississippi State.
Bad losses: at South Carolina.
Texas plummeted with six losses in seven games resulting in the Longhorns falling out of the field for the first time this season. A potentially momentum-turning win at Mississippi State on Tuesday gives them an important fifth Quad 1 victory. The Longhorns end the regular season against Oklahoma in a big-time bubble matchup.
North Carolina
Record: 20-11 (13-6). NET Ranking: 38. Quad 1 record: 1-10. Projected seed: First four out.
Quality wins: vs. UCLA (neutral), SMU.
Bad losses: vs. Stanford.
North Carolina continues to do all it can do with its schedule and beat the teams it needs to dominate. The Tar Heels won their sixth in a row Tuesday at Virginia Tech in impressive fashion. At-large hopes likely rest on Saturday against rival Duke. Beating the Blue Devils would give a much-needed second Quad 1 win and maybe finally get North Carolina out of the first four out. A loss and a herculean effort is needed in the ACC tournament.