The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings show how the race for the 12-team field has settled into form with only conference championship games remaining in the regular season.
With at least eight and maybe nine teams already locked into place, there should be very little controversy with the final rankings should favorites take care of business on Friday and Saturday.
But messiness is lurking around the corner. Based on Tuesday night’s rankings, the one game that could throw the whole debate into chaos is the ACC championship game between No. 8 SMU and No. 17 Clemson. After backing into the matchup with help from No. 12 Miami and No. 22 Syracuse, the Tigers could take a fourth bid away from the SEC by knocking off the Mustangs.
Another matchup with heavy playoff implications will be in the Mountain West, where No. 10 Boise State and No. 20 UNLV are set to meet for the second time this season.
And the biggest takeaway from Tuesday night involves Ohio State, which came at No. 6 after losing to rival Michigan.
The Buckeyes and Alabama lead the winners and losers from the latest playoff rankings:
Winners
Ohio State
Dropping just four spots from last week is a huge win for the Buckeyes, who are now in line to host an opening-round playoff game despite Saturday’s loss and the ensuing fourth-place finish in the Big Ten. The committee looked past that miserable finish to the regular season and focused on Ohio State’s two marquee wins against No. 3 Penn State and No. 9 Indiana. Another advantage in the comparison with No. 7 Tennessee are each team’s losses: No. 1 Oregon and Michigan for the Buckeye against Arkansas and No. 5 Georgia for the Volunteers. That’s a comparison that favored Ohio State.
Alabama
The No. 11 Crimson Tide were able to stay well ahead of No. 14 South Carolina despite the Gamecocks’ rivalry win against Clemson. Based on the precedent set on Tuesday night, this leaves Alabama as the next in line to earn a playoff bid should one spot open after conference championships are held this weekend. The one result that would derail Alabama’s chances is Clemson winning the ACC, since SMU seems in position to earn an at-large bid with a loss. Two ACC teams in the bracket would result in just three SEC teams, leaving the Tide as the first team out.
UNLV
That UNLV rose to No. 20 virtually guarantees the winner of the Mountain West will end up as the top-ranked team in the Group of Five. The Rebels were helped by Tulane’s loss to No. 25 Memphis, which knocked the Green Wave out of playoff contention and robbed No. 24 Army of the chance to add a much-needed marquee win. While in line for a playoff bid by beating Boise State, UNLV would not receive an opening-round bye as the fourth-highest conference champion; that final spot would very likely be taken by the Big 12 winner.
Losers
Army
You have to wonder about what could’ve been: Had Army pulled off an enormous upset of No. 4 Notre Dame two weeks ago and Tulane topped Memphis, you could’ve mapped out a scenario where the Black Knights would’ve joined the Mountain West winner as the second Group of Five team in the field. Now four spots south of UNLV, Army has increasingly long odds of capturing a playoff berth. But there’s plenty left to play for, beginning with the chance for the first conference crown in program history before meeting rival Navy to end the regular season.
South Carolina
The hottest team in the SEC and one of the red-hot teams in all of the FBS will eventually be boxed out of the playoff by two key losses: to Alabama and No. 13 Mississippi. It’s hard to complain about the Gamecocks’ ranking when all three teams have the same record and the Tide and Rebels own the head-to-head tiebreaker. But South Carolina has been on a roll, taking six in a row with three wins against teams in this week’s rankings, and would’ve been a very tough matchup for any opponent in the opening round.