Notre Dame’s loss to Northern Illinois is the ugliest loss of any CFP contender, but Irish are positioned for an ideal playoff seed.
Should Notre Dame be in the playoff? No argument. But, hosting a first-round game? C’mon, that’s the persuasive magic of the golden dome at work.
Irish rank ahead of a glob of two-loss SEC teams in CFP rankings.
The golden dome works wonders on the College Football Playoff selection committee.
After Notre Dame lost on its home turf two months ago to an average MAC opponent, reasonable minds wondered whether that loss would eliminate the Fighting Irish from the playoff.
How would the committee assess a one-loss Notre Dame compared to a two-loss SEC team that played a more rugged schedule?
Well, we have our answer. The committee forgiveth the Irish. They’re ranked No. 6 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, ahead of a glob of two-loss SEC teams that play tougher schedules. It’s almost as if that 16-14 home loss to Northern Illinois never happened.
How stupid we were, to think the committee would get heavy-handed on the South Bend glory boys. I mean, c’mon, a lot of these committee members probably watched “Rudy.”
Touchdown Jesus has broad shoulders. He lifts a heavy load.
Beat a few meek opponents from the ACC, and presto! Not only are the 9-1 Irish positioned to the make the playoff, they’re being rewarded with the enviable spot to host a first-round game.
Based on what, exactly?
“The Irish have really, since that loss, performed very well,” said College Football Playoff selection committee chairman Warde Manuel, who is Michigan’s athletic director.
“Riley Leonard has come into his own. He’s really a dynamic runner. They had a great opening win against Texas A&M. … They had a dominant performance (against Navy), and so, we’ve been impressed at how Notre Dame has recovered since that loss to NIU at home.”
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Put Notre Dame in CFP bracket, but host? Too much
Look, everything Manuel said is true.
Notre Dame swiftly and effectively recovered from that loss. The Irish defense is legit, and Leonard found his stride throughout his first season with a new squad.
I take little issue with Notre Dame being in the playoff, but rewarding the Irish with a first-round home game despite a loss to Northern Illinois and squishy strength of schedule is a step too far.
Consider, nobody else we’re discussing in serious playoff contention lost to a Group of Five team. Alabama losing at Vanderbilt is not equivalent to losing at home to NIU, but the Irish rank ahead of the Tide, courtesy of having one fewer loss thanks to a much easier schedule.
Every single Power Four team in playoff consideration scheduled a minimum of nine Power Four opponents. Notre Dame scheduled eight.
The Irish will play only three true road games. One of those came against Purdue, which is 1-9. Every other team in playoff contention will play more road games than Notre Dame.
Need I go on? OK, I will.
The seven Power Four opponents Notre Dame faced so far have a combined record of 30-40. Credit the Irish for blowing out mediocre and bad opponents.
Notre Dame’s road win at Texas A&M serves as its crown jewel, but the argument here isn’t whether Notre Dame should get in over the Aggies. Of course the Irish should be ahead of Texas A&M in the pecking order.
The issue here is not whether to admit Notre Dame, but whether a quality season-opening road win should be enough to power the Irish to host status. The Irish are ranked ahead of teams like Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia, when their strength of schedule trails every single SEC team in playoff contention.
Just how high can Notre Dame go in the CFP seeding?
If the playoff started today, Notre Dame would be seeded No. 8 and host the No. 9 seed, but at least one team ranked ahead of it is guaranteed to lose, because Ohio State and Indiana will play each other. Other teams ranked ahead of the Irish might lose in a conference championship game, a risk Notre Dame won’t take as an independent.
If you think I make too big of a deal about whether a team is seeded high enough to host a first-round game, as opposed to having to go on the road, talk to any coach. They’ll tell you seeding is critical. Those Nos. 5 through 8 seeds are coveted spots, because it ensures you’ll play every playoff game either at home or at a neutral site.
By playoff selection day, the Irish could climb all the way to the No. 5 seed and host the playoff’s worst team, while owning the most embarrassing loss of any team in the field and pinning its résumé to its helmets.
That’s quite a prize, considering a No. 5 seed is literally the best seed Notre Dame is eligible to receive. Top-four seeds are reserved for conference champions.
Let’s pause to say this could sort itself out on the field.
The Irish have games remaining against undefeated Army and at Southern California, two of their toughest tests. Lose one, and we won’t be debating whether Notre Dame should be a first-round host, because the Irish won’t be in the playoff at all. An Irish loss would unlock a playoff spot for Tennessee.
If the Irish win these next two, they’re on easy street.
They can sit back and relax on conference championship weekend, study a little film, and polish those golden domes that pulled one over on the selection committee.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.